HydroCast
Rain & floodHydroCast v1.0HydroCast combines short-duration rain intensity, multi-day accumulation, ensemble-relative river discharge anomaly, topsoil saturation and exposure context into one explainable 0–100 rain/flood attention score.
Run HydroCast
Live mode uses keyless open providers; demo mode is deterministic and offline. Missing data lowers confidence — it never fakes a value.
Score formula
Required inputs
- precipitation (mm/h) + forward 6 h intensity
- accumulated rain 6 h / 24 h / 72 h (mm)
- precipitation probability (%)
Optional inputs
- river discharge + ensemble statistics (m³/s, GloFAS)
- soil moisture 0–1 cm (m³/m³)
- built-up / low-elevation context
Missing optional inputs drop their formula term (weights renormalize) and reduce confidence — the engine never crashes or invents data.
Decision modes
Neither heavy rain nor unusual river discharge is indicated.
Short-duration rain intensity or accumulation is elevated.
River discharge is unusually high relative to its ensemble reference and rising.
Heavy rain over built-up, low-lying terrain — drainage overload attention.
Intense short-duration rain onto saturated ground — rapid-onset flooding possible.
Not enough normalized input data to assess hydro risk.
Limitations
- HydroCast does not model street-level inundation, drainage networks or dam operations.
- River discharge statistics are ensemble-relative (forecast members), not a long-term climatological return period.
- The nearest GloFAS river cell (~5 km) may not be the watercourse of interest.
- Rain forecasts carry model uncertainty that grows with horizon.
HydroCast is a self-built TerraSentinel engine: external providers supply live environmental variables; the score, mode, confidence, explanation and actions above are computed by this project’s own documented model. Provider risk indexes are used only as benchmark references and never as the output. API: GET /api/engines/hydrocast/run?lat=&lon=
TerraSentinel is a decision-support tool and does not replace official emergency services, government warnings, or professional environmental management decisions.