StormCast

Storms & windStormCast v1.0

StormCast scores convective storm and damaging-gust attention from CAPE, lifted index (both CIN-dampened), forecast wind gusts, probability-weighted heavy rain and 3 h pressure falls. It flags ingredients — never an exact storm path.

Run StormCast

Live mode uses keyless open providers; demo mode is deterministic and offline. Missing data lowers confidence — it never fakes a value.

LatitudeLongitudeData

Score formula

StormCast = 0.25·cape + 0.20·lifted_index_instability + 0.20·wind_gusts + 0.20·heavy_precip_probability + 0.10·pressure_change + 0.05·lightning_potential

25%cape_score

20%lifted_index_instability

20%wind_gust_score

20%heavy_precip_probability

10%pressure_change_context

5%lightning_potential_score

Required inputs

CAPE (J/kg), lifted index (K)
wind gusts (km/h)
precipitation probability + intensity

Optional inputs

convective inhibition (J/kg)
MSL pressure 3 h change (hPa)
lightning potential (regional models only)

Missing optional inputs drop their formula term (weights renormalize) and reduce confidence — the engine never crashes or invents data.

Decision modes

calm

Calm

No significant convective ingredients.

storm_watch

Storm watch

Instability and trigger ingredients are elevated.

severe_gust_attention

Severe gust attention

Damaging wind gusts are the leading concern.

convective_rain_attention

Convective rain attention

Thunderstorm downpours are the leading concern.

insufficient_data

Insufficient data

Not enough instability/wind data to assess.

Limitations

StormCast flags ingredients, not initiation: high CAPE with strong inhibition may never convect.
No storm-path, hail-size or tornado prediction is made.
Lightning potential is unavailable in most regions (optional term).
Model gusts underestimate local convective downbursts.

Model card

StormCast is a self-built TerraSentinel engine: external providers supply live environmental variables; the score, mode, confidence, explanation and actions above are computed by this project’s own documented model. Provider risk indexes are used only as benchmark references and never as the output. API: GET /api/engines/stormcast/run?lat=&lon=

TerraSentinel is a decision-support tool and does not replace official emergency services, government warnings, or professional environmental management decisions.